Baseline Kidney Function as Predictor of Mortality and Kidney Disease Progression in HIV-Positive Patients

BackgroundChronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with increased all-cause mortality and kidney disease progression. Decreased kidney function at baseline may identify human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive patients at increased risk of death and kidney disease progression.Study DesignObservational cohort study.Setting & Participants7 large HIV cohorts in the United Kingdom with kidney function data available for 20,132 patients.PredictorBaseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).OutcomesDeath and progression to stages 4-5 CKD (eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m2 for >3 months) in Cox proportional hazards and competing-risk regression models.ResultsMedian age at baseline was 34 (25th-75th percentile, 30-40) years, median CD4 cell count was 350 (25th-75th percentile, 208-520) cells/μL, and median eGFR was 100 (25th-75th percentile, 87-112) mL/min/1.73 m2. Patients were followed up for a median of 5.3 (25th-75th percentile, 2.0-8.9) years, during which 1,820 died and 56 progressed to stages 4-5 CKD. A U-shaped relationship between baseline eGFR and mortality was observed. After adjustment for potential confounders, eGFRs <45 and >105 mL/min/1.73 m2 remained associated significantly with increased risk of death. Baseline eGFR <90 mL/min/1.73 m2 was associated with increased risk of kidney disease progression, with the highest incidence rates of stages 4-5 CKD (>3 events/100 person-years) observed in black patients with eGFR of 30-59 mL/min/1.73 m2 and those of white/other ethnicity with eGFR of 30-44 mL/min/1.73 m2.LimitationsThe relatively small numbers of patients with decreased eGFR at baseline and low rates of progression to stages 4-5 CKD and lack of data for diabetes, hypertension, and proteinuria.ConclusionsAlthough stages 4-5 CKD were uncommon in this cohort, baseline eGFR allowed the identification of patients at increased risk of death and at greatest risk of kidney disease progression.