Endometrial thickness as a predictor of pregnancy outcomes in 10787 fresh IVF-ICSI cycles

This retrospective study assessed the predictive value of endometrial thickness (EMT) on HCG administration day for the clinical outcome of fresh IVF and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles. A total of 8690 consecutive women undergoing 10,787 cycles over a 5-year period were included. The 5th, 50th and 95th centiles for EMT were determined as 8, 11 and 15 mm, respectively. Group analysis according to these centiles (Group 1: < 8 mm; Group 2: ≥ 8 and ≤11 mm; Group 3: > 11 and ≤15 mm; Group 4: > 15 mm) demonstrated significant differences (P < 0.001) in clinical pregnancy rates (23.0%, 37.2%, 46.2% and 53.3%, respectively), live birth rates per clinical pregnancy (63.3%, 72.0%, 78.1% and 80.3%, respectively), spontaneous abortion rates (26.7%, 23.8%, 19.9% and 17.5%, respectively), and ectopic pregnancy rates (10.0%, 4.3%, 2.1% and 2.2%, respectively). Logistic regression analyses showed EMT as one of the independent variables predictive of clinical pregnancy (OR = 1.097; P < 0.001), live birth (OR = 1.078; P < 0.001), spontaneous abortion (OR = 0.948; P < 0.001), and ectopic pregnancy (OR = 0.851; P < 0.001). Future research should aim to understand the underlying mechanisms relating EMT to conception, ectopic implantation and spontaneous abortion.