Modelling Aspergillus flavus growth and aflatoxins production in pistachio nuts

► The gamma concept allowed for simpler model designs for growth prediction. ► Unsafe aflatoxin levels can be reached in 1 month if pistachio nuts reach 20 °C, unless %mc is ≤10%. ► Probability models led to good prediction of growth and aflatoxin production by Aspergillus flavus. ► Probability would never reach 0.05 if pistachio %mc is 8% or storage temperature is 8 °C.