کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
6292907 1617131 2016 14 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Can China achieve its 2020 carbon intensity target? A scenario analysis based on system dynamics approach
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
آیا چین می تواند هدف خود را برای 2020 کربن در نظر بگیرد؟ تجزیه و تحلیل سناریو بر اساس رویکرد پویایی سیستم
کلمات کلیدی
شدت کربن، مدل پویایی سیستم سیاست مالیات کربن، سیاست انرژی جدید، تجزیه و تحلیل سناریو،
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک بوم شناسی، تکامل، رفتار و سامانه شناسی
چکیده انگلیسی
Since Chinese government put a target to decrease carbon intensity 40-45% in 2020 than that of 2005, a series of emission mitigation measures has been implemented. Against this backdrop, we established a system dynamics model to investigate the energy consumption, CO2 emission and mitigation options in China. The results show that the carbon intensity will reduce by 22.68%, 26.84%, 43.77%, and 46.65% in BaU (Business as usual), NEP (New energy policy), CTP (Carbon tax policy) and IP (Integrated policy) scenarios in 2020 compared with 2005. Obviously, Chinese government can accomplish the target under CTP and IP scenarios. Moreover, the “inflection point” in CTP and IP scenarios reveals the decision-making process between tax burden and emission reduction behavior. A brief analysis of interactive effect is accomplished by equilibrium theory and simulation results. It shows that the interactive effect of two policies, which act on the same object with same action direction, is weaker than the aggregation of two separated effects, whereas it is larger than any individual effect. In a nutshell, these findings are helpful for policymakers to optimize their policy decision-making to cut CO2 emissions.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Ecological Indicators - Volume 71, December 2016, Pages 99-112
نویسندگان
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