The effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

Here we present a structured matrix population model for analyzing the effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. The model is structured following the four natural stages of the species: egg, larva, pupa and adult. A set of population projection matrices (one for each temperature between 5 and 30 °C), was constructed and parameterized using published data on the biology of the species. The output of the models showed that pupation does not occur at temperatures below 8 °C. The population's growth rate was calculated for temperatures between 11 and 30 °C, resulting in an increasing function showing that temperatures above 12 °C are sufficient for population growth. For each matrix, a sensitivity and elasticity analysis of the parameters was performed. Together with the results from the population stable distribution analysis, they suggest that policies aimed at reducing the abundance of Aedes aegypti should seek to lower the survival probability in the egg and larval stages. The population dynamics was simulated under different seasonal scenarios. This seasonal analysis allows asserting that the egg stage dominates the population dynamics at all seasons.