Sex dependent spatially explicit stochastic dispersal modeling as a framework for the study of jaguar conservation and management in South America

- Spatially explicit population dynamic model that includes sex differences and threats.
- The model captures species densities at critical sites in the study region.
- We use the model to predict connectivity between known populated areas.
- We identify regions that most probably cannot be regarded as corridors.
- The model can be seen as a tool to calibrate capture-recapture models.

The jaguar (Panthera onca) inhabits most of the lowlands (<2000 m) of central and South America in small and numerous fragmented populations. This species now occupies only 50% of its historic range and is included in ICUN red list. Current conservation and management plans rely on the identification and preservation of corridors and potential areas for species dispersion that provide gene flow. Over the last decade, expert-based knowledge consolidation and computational modeling complemented with radio-telemetry and camera-trapping analysis defined suitable areas for jaguar long-term survival and corridors for preserving jaguar connectivity. However, none of these static models incorporate jaguar population dynamics and assume that current population distribution is at steady state equilibrium. Here, we analyze jaguar metapopulation dynamics with a spatially explicit stochastic dispersal model to predict jaguar population distribution and density at a continental level. We also incorporate other biological features in the model such as gender differences regarding movement patterns and include the effect of human-jaguar conflict. This dynamic model provides a good framework for jaguar conservation analysis by providing new insights into jaguar migration and species viability.