Source-sink population dynamics driven by a brood parasite: A case study of an endangered songbird, the black-capped vireo

A thorough understanding of the effects of spatially and temporally variable demographic drivers of population processes is necessary to accurately evaluate potential source-sink dynamics, estimate long-term population viability, and devise effective management practices. The black-capped vireo (Vireo atricapilla) is an endangered songbird that suffers from high rates of parasitism by the brown-headed cowbird (Molothrus ater). The largest breeding population of vireos is located on the Fort Hood Military Installation in central Texas. This large reserve is well studied but its role in vireo metapopulation dynamics is largely unknown. Furthermore, the evolving cowbird control regime across Fort Hood and nearby isolated populations could impact the local source-sink dynamics. From 2011 through 2014, we monitored breeding vireos at eleven sites across central Texas that varied in cowbird control level. From observations of fecundity and survival, we calculated stochastic and deterministic population growth rates and assessed populations as sources or sinks. We also calculated quasi-extinction probabilities and the sensitivity and elasticity of population growth to demographic parameters. Sites with at least some cowbird control had greater nest success than sites with no cowbird control. We identified four source populations, three of which were on the large Fort Hood reserve and had comprehensive cowbird control across all study years. Although not all sites with cowbird control were sources on average, population dynamics were variable between years and the implementation of cowbird management was generally associated with the growth of local populations. Importantly, source and sink populations were not static, revealing a complex and temporally dynamic system driven largely by variations in adult survival and evolving cowbird control regimes.