Conservation of northwest Atlantic harp seals: Past success, future uncertainty?

Harp seals require pack ice as a platform for resting, to give birth and nurse their young. They are also subject to commercial and subsistence harvesting. In the late 1990's there were concerns that the Northwest Atlantic population would decline to very low levels unless a management system using Potential Biological Removals (PBR) was adopted. Canada followed a different approach and high harvests based on an alternative management framework continued throughout the next decade. We examined the status of the Northwest Atlantic harp seal population using a three parameter population model that incorporates information on reproductive rates, removals, and ice-related mortality acting on young of the year. By 1971, the population had declined to a minimum of 1.1 million animals and a quota was introduced, which allowed the population to increase. In 1996, the quota was raised and harvests increased substantially. Population growth continued, even as herd productivity declined. The population reached a maximum of 7.8 million animals in 2008 and has leveled off at around 7.4 million animals. Climate change is expected to result in a decline in the amount of seasonal pack ice in Atlantic Canada, which adds uncertainty to the future of this population. Although the results presented in this paper focused on how the status of this population has evolved over the last 60 years, our integrated modeling approach can also be used to examine scenarios that project into the future, to test the impacts of various management decisions in a changing environment.