کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
6368895 | 1623802 | 2016 | 9 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A dynamic compartmental model for the Middle East respiratory syndrome outbreak in the Republic of Korea: A retrospective analysis on control interventions and superspreading events
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
یک مدل پویا برای شیوع سندرم تنفسی در خاورمیانه در جمهوری کره: یک تحلیل گذشتهنامۀ مداخلات کنترل و رویدادهای بزرگ
دانلود مقاله + سفارش ترجمه
دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی
رایگان برای ایرانیان
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری
علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک
علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی
The 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak in the Republic of Korea has provided an opportunity to improve our understanding of the spread of MERS linked to healthcare settings. Here we designed a dynamic transmission model to analyze the MERS outbreak in the Republic of Korea based on confirmed cases reported during the period May 20-July 4, 2015. Our model explicitly incorporates superspreading events and time-dependent transmission and isolation rates. Our model was able to provide a good fit to the trajectory of the outbreak and was useful to analyze the role of hypothetical control scenarios. Specifically, we assessed the impact of the timing of control measures, especially associated with a reduction of the transmission rate and diagnostic delays on outbreak size and duration. Early interventions within 1Â week after the epidemic onset, for instance, including the initial government announcement to the public about the list of hospitals exposed to MERS coronavirus (MERS-CoV), show a promising means to reduce the size (>71%) and duration (>35%) of the MERS epidemic. Finally, we also present results of an uncertainty analysis focused on the role of superspreading events.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Theoretical Biology - Volume 408, 7 November 2016, Pages 118-126
Journal: Journal of Theoretical Biology - Volume 408, 7 November 2016, Pages 118-126
نویسندگان
Jonggul Lee, Gerardo Chowell, Eunok Jung,