Optimal control of an influenza model with seasonal forcing and age-dependent transmission rates

This study considers an optimal intervention strategy for influenza outbreaks. Variations in the SEIAR model are considered to include seasonal forcing and age structure, and control strategies include vaccination, antiviral treatment, and social distancing such as school closures. We formulate an optimal control problem by minimizing the incidence of influenza outbreaks while considering intervention costs. We examine the effects of delays in vaccine production, seasonal forcing, and age-dependent transmission rates on the optimal control and suggest some optimal strategies through numerical simulations.

► An optimal control problem is formulated to derive control strategies for an influenza. ► Vaccination should occur at the highest rate as early as possible. ► Treatment should be tailored to the dynamics of infected populations. ► Focusing vaccination on high-transmission groups prevents the spread of diseases.