کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
6371588 | 1318941 | 2010 | 12 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Asymmetrical over-infection as a process of plant virus emergence
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری
علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک
علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک (عمومی)
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چکیده انگلیسی
Disentangling the role of epidemiological factors in plant pathogen emergences is a prerequisite to identify the most likely future invaders. An example of emergence was recently observed in France: in 10 years, “classic” (CL) strains of Watermelon mosaic virus (WMV) were displaced at a regional scale by newly introduced “emerging” (EM) strains. Here we analyse a 3 years dataset describing the co-dynamics of CL and EM strains at field scale using state-space models estimating jointly: (i) probabilities of primary and secondary infection and (ii) probabilities of over-infecting with a CL [EM] strain a plant already infected with an EM [CL] strain. Results especially indicate that it is more than 3 times less probable for a CL strain to over-infect an EM infected plant than for an EM strain to over-infect a CL infected plant. To investigate if these asymmetric interactions can explain the CL/EM shift observed at regional scale, an exploratory model describing WMV epidemiology over several years in a landscape composed of a reservoir and a cultivated compartment is introduced. In most simulations a shift is observed and both strains do coexist in the landscape, reaching an equilibrium that depends on the probabilities of over-infection.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Theoretical Biology - Volume 265, Issue 3, 7 August 2010, Pages 377-388
Journal: Journal of Theoretical Biology - Volume 265, Issue 3, 7 August 2010, Pages 377-388
نویسندگان
Frédéric Fabre, Joël ChadÅuf, Caroline Costa, Hervé Lecoq, Cécile Desbiez,