Non-metro versus metro poverty in the transition to adulthood in the United States: (1980-2009)

- Poverty is unevenly distributed across non-metro and metro areas.
- Residence itself is not a significant predictor of poverty in young adulthood.
- No significant period effects were found from 1980 to 2009.
- Young adults of low socioeconomic status, service occupations, or single-parents with children are most at risk of poverty.

Between 1980 and 2009 young adults in non-metro areas of the United States faced unfavorable structural changes in the global macroeconomy, spatial concentrations of poverty in non-metro areas, and shifts in family and household structure; however, little existing scholarship explores poverty specifically with reference to non-metro or rural young adults. We argue that young adulthood provides a strategic window in which to examine the intersection of these varied risk factors for economic hardship since young adults are especially vulnerable to poverty and are the most likely to experience changes in family or household structure. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) this paper examines non-metro versus metro variation in the risk of falling into poverty between the ages 25-30. Time-varying covariates are utilized in order to accurately model changes in residential status and family structure over time. Results indicate that, while poverty is unevenly distributed across non-metro and metro areas, residence itself is not a significant predictor of poverty when family background and individual-level characteristics are taken into account. Family socioeconomic status, service-sector occupation, and living in a single-parent household with children are found to be the most significant risk factors for poverty in the transition to adulthood.