Failure probability assessment and parameter sensitivity analysis of a contaminant's transit time through a compacted clay liner

This paper presents failure probability assessment and parameter sensitivity analysis of a contaminant's transit time through a compacted clay liner. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was used to assess failure probability, and the failure samples generated in the MCS were used to investigate the sensitivity of various uncertain parameters to the failure probability. To facilitate the MCS, a database on various transport parameters was developed by collecting and analyzing measurement data reported in literature. Failure probability assessment and parameter sensitivity analysis showed that the uncertainties in adsorption parameters, longitudinal dispersivity, and hydraulic conductivity have the most significant effects on failure probability.