Improving the sustainability of agricultural land use: An integrated framework for the conflict between food security and environmental deterioration

In rapidly developing countries, intensive agriculture faces the conflict between food security and environmental deterioration. To improve the sustainability of agricultural land use, this paper proposes an integrated framework for risk assessment and conflict coordination to cope with these salient challenges at the administrative unit level. This framework is demonstrated using a case study conducted in the Dongting Lake area in China. Drawing upon diverse sources of statistical data concerning agricultural inputs and outputs, water resources and natural hazards as well as questionnaire surveys conducted at the household level, this paper uses the Cobb-Douglas production function and the water environmental pressure index to assess food insecurity risk and environmental risk from food production, respectively. A double matrix method is used to characterize the degree of sustainability based on the risk assessment. The results indicate that the overall food security of the region can be maintained in the negligible-risk range. However, rising agro-environmental risks from grain production in the coming years are likely to threaten the sustainability of agricultural land use in most administrative units. It is suggested that optimization of land use patterns and mitigation of natural hazards could be effective approaches to improve the sustainability of local agricultural land use.