The impact of water transfers from the lower Yangtze River on water security in Shanghai

Shanghai is a megacity that increasingly relies on water drawn from the Yangtze River estuary. During periods of low flow, water in the estuary can become too saline for use in city water supplies. River flow is measured at the Datong gauging station 680 km upstream from the river mouth. Several existing and planned river water extractions are located below Datong, including the Eastern Route of the South-North Water Diversion Project (ERP). The effect of these extractions on discharge into the estuary and the associated salinity levels may be significant, even though the extractions are not reflected in the discharge at Datong. We estimate the effects of these downstream extractions on water discharge into the estuary (rather than at Datong), particularly the critical discharge level below which salinity compromises water security in Shanghai. Our results show that the ERP will cause the discharge into the estuary to fall below critical levels between December and February in dry years and January to February in normal years. Future water transfer projects along the lower Yangtze River will further compound the problem. Maintaining Shanghai's water security is therefore a significant challenge for China's water resource management institutions.