Temporal dynamics in the relationship between land use factors and modal split in commuting: A local case study

This paper analyses the relationship between land use and the modal split in commuting over time to assess, from a dynamic perspective, the effectiveness of land use policies in managing mobility. The analysis covers 2001 and 2011 at municipal level in Biscay (Spain). The methodology used is based on SUR models, which take into account the potential temporal interdependence between periods. Furthermore, spatial econometric techniques are applied to avoid biased results and unreliable inferences due to spatial dependence. The results indicate that urban density is a key factor, as it is the only factor relevant for all means of transport and time periods. It can be seen that the relationship between land use factors and modal split varies over time for commuter journeys made by private transport and cycling/walking, suggesting that there is a need to monitor the effectiveness of land use policies so as to adapt them to the characteristics of each period.