Machine learning-based thermal response time ahead energy demand prediction for building heating systems

Energy demand prediction of building heating is conducive to optimal control, fault detection and diagnosis and building intelligentization. In this study, energy demand prediction models are developed through machine learning methods, including extreme learning machine, multiple linear regression, support vector regression and backpropagation neural network. Seven different meteorological parameters, operating parameters, time and indoor temperature parameters are used as feature variables of the model. Correlation analysis method is utilized to optimize the feature sets. Moreover, this paper proposes a strategy for obtaining the thermal response time of building, which is used as the time ahead of prediction models. The prediction performances of extreme learning machine models with various hidden layer nodes are analyzed and contrasted. Actual data of building heating using a ground source heat pump system are collected and used to test the performances of the models. Results show that the thermal response time of the building is approximately 40 min. Four feature sets are obtained, and the performances of the models with feature set 4 are better. For different machine learning methods, the performances of extreme learning machine models are better than others. In addition, the optimal number of hidden layer nodes is 11 for the extreme learning machine model with feature set 4.