A Canadian 2050 energy outlook: Analysis with the multi-regional model TIMES-Canada

In our Reference scenario, we show that the Canadian final energy consumption is expected to increase by 43% between 2007 and 2050. The Fast scenario leads to the maximum increase compared with the Reference scenario (21% in 2050). In all scenarios, oil products will continue to dominate on the long term, although in a decreasing proportion over time (from 43% in 2007 to 29% in 2050) in favor of electricity (31% of the additional demand in 2050) and biomass/biofuels. Regarding the corresponding optimal energy production paths, we illustrate two main trends: (1) a gradual replacement of onshore conventional oil & gas sources by unconventional and offshore sources (oil sands is expected to represent half of the production in 2050), and (2) a significant penetration of renewables in the electricity mix is shown after 2035 due to increases in oil import prices and decreases in renewable technology costs. The development and calibration of such a detailed technology-rich model represent an important contribution for Canada: TIMES-Canada is the only optimization model covering in details the large diversity of provincial energy systems on a long term horizon.