Targeting utility customers to improve energy savings from conservation and efficiency programs

Electric utilities, government agencies, and private interests in the US have committed and continue to invest substantial resources - including billions of dollars of financial capital - in the pursuit of energy efficiency and conservation through demand-side management (DSM) programs. While most of these programs are deemed to be cost effective, and therefore in the public interest, opportunities exist to improve cost effectiveness by targeting programs to those customers with the greatest potential for energy savings. This article details an analysis of three DSM programs offered by three Florida municipal electric utilities to explore such opportunities. First, we estimate programs' energy savings impacts; second, we measure and compare energy savings across subgroups of program participants as determined by their pre-intervention energy performance, and third, we explore potential changes in program impacts that might be realized by targeting specific customers for participation in the DSM programs. All three programs resulted in statistically significant average (per-participant) energy savings, yet average savings varied widely, with the customers who performed best (i.e., most efficient) before the intervention saving the least energy and those who performed worst (i.e., least efficient) before the intervention saving the most. Assessment of alternative program participation scenarios with varying levels of customer targeting suggests that program impacts could be increased by as much as 80% for a professional energy audit program, just over 100% for a high-efficiency heat pump upgrade program, and nearly 250% for an attic insulation upgrade program. Findings are directly relevant for utility program administrators seeking to improve program outcomes.