کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
6695166 1428268 2018 15 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Schedule risk analysis of infrastructure projects: A hybrid dynamic approach
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تجزیه و تحلیل ریسک برنامه ریزی پروژه های زیربنایی: رویکرد پویای ترکیبی
کلمات کلیدی
پروژه زیرساخت، خطر برنامه ریزی، رویکرد پویای ترکیبی، دینامیک سیستم، شبیه سازی رویداد گسسته،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی مهندسی عمران و سازه
چکیده انگلیسی
Schedule risk is a major concern in infrastructure project management. Existing studies have proposed several models for schedule risk analysis, but few efforts have been made on the dynamics and uncertainty of risks and the generality and practicability of the model. To fill the research gaps, this study develops a hybrid dynamic approach for investigating the effect of risks on infrastructure project schedule performance. This approach combines system dynamics (SD) and discrete event simulation (DES) which have mainly been used to analyze the macroscopic and microcosmic construction issues in isolation, respectively. The model is then verified by data which is collected from a bridge construction project. As an application example, the effect of four selected risks on the schedule was explored. The results show that the proposed SD-DES model could be ease of modifying the model to reflect real situation, performing various sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, and showing simulation results more effectively.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Automation in Construction - Volume 95, November 2018, Pages 20-34
نویسندگان
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