کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
6727539 1428916 2018 50 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Guidelines for the Bayesian calibration of building energy models
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
دستورالعمل های کالیبراسیون بیزی برای مدل های انرژی ساختمان
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی انرژی های تجدید پذیر، توسعه پایدار و محیط زیست
چکیده انگلیسی
Using a case study, we demonstrate the application of Kennedy and O'Hagan's (KOH) [1] Bayesian calibration framework to an EnergyPlus whole building energy model. The case study is used to analyze the sensitivity of the posterior distributions to the number of calibration parameters. The study also looks into the influence of prior specification on the resulting (1) posterior distributions; (2) calibrated predictions; and (3) model inadequacy that is revealed by a discrepancy between the observed data and the model predictions. Results from the case study suggest that over-parameterization can result in a significant loss of posterior precision. Additionally, using strong prior information for the calibration parameters may dominate any influence from the data leading to poor posterior inference of the calibration parameters. Lastly, this study shows that it may be misleading to assume that the posteriors of the calibration parameters are representative of their true values and their associated uncertainty simply because the calibrated predictions matches the measured output well.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy and Buildings - Volume 174, 1 September 2018, Pages 527-547
نویسندگان
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