Adaptive learning based data-driven models for predicting hourly building energy use

Accurately predicting energy usage in buildings is of great importance in various efforts on improving building energy efficiencies such as fault detection and diagnostics, building-grid interactions, and building commissioning. Data-driven approach and first-principle approach are two commonly used methods in developing models for predicting building energy use. In this paper, several data-driven methods including multiple linear regression, adaptive linear filter algorithms (least mean square (LMS), normalized least mean square (nLMS), and recursive least square (RLS)), and Gaussian mixture model regression (GMMR) are employed to predict hourly energy usages in two buildings. One building is a synthetic large-size office building from DOE reference building models. The hourly building energy consumption was predicted using the energy simulation model for one year under Chicago climate. The other building is an existing office building located in Des Moines, Iowa. The actual hourly building energy consumption of the existing building was obtained through building submeters. The accuracies of these data-driven models for predicting energy usages of the two buildings are compared. The GMMR models outperform the adaptive filter methods in this study. Both the GMMR and adaptive filter methods meet the model calibration criteria defined by the ASHRAE Guideline 14.