A major infrastructure risk-assessment framework: Application to a cross-sea route project in China

This paper proposes a major infrastructure risk assessment framework (MIRAF) based on an adapted Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) risk assessment model, and applies it to a cross-sea route project that is expected to connect Guangdong Province and Hainan Island. Two alternative schemes for the cross-sea route namely the tunnel scheme and the bridge scheme, are compared in terms of risks during their different project time spans. Results indicate that the risk of the bridge scheme is larger than that of the tunnel scheme, and that the risk will increase over time. Several risk factors, including damage to commercial interests of local fishermen, damage to habitat for rare and endangered animals, financial crisis and sea storm surge, are identified as significant factors during the implementation of the tunnel scheme. This approach can be used as a decision tool to identify, analyze and assess the risks existing in the major infrastructure projects.