کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
6764185 | 1431577 | 2018 | 15 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Grid parity analysis of distributed PV generation using Monte Carlo approach: The Brazilian case
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی های تجدید پذیر، توسعه پایدار و محیط زیست
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چکیده انگلیسی
We have conducted a grid parity analysis of distributed PV generation in Brazil through the use of a probabilistic Monte Carlo approach. Essentially, we have derived the probability distribution of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for both PV and grid electricity. We have thus assessed how likely grid parity will occur with respect to system's nominal power and financing scheme in a net metering framework, by computing the cumulative probability for which the LCOE difference is nonnegative: P(ÎLCOEâ¥0). Regarding southern Brazil, it appears that economic viability of many residential grid-connected PV systems in operation is far from guaranteed, due to the need for substantial own capital and nominal capacity. 4-kW systems might be viable (P(ÎLCOEâ¥0)=0.82) but only by relying on equity financing, while small systems around 2kW will not (P(ÎLCOEâ¥0)â¤0.3). When debt financing is considered however, merely systems with nominal capacity above 7kW present significant confidence levels (P(ÎLCOEâ¥0)>0.95). Eventually, it is outlined that electric company, state tax policy and consumption class are the effective leverages when assessing whether cost of distributed PV generation shall reach parity in the country.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Renewable Energy - Volume 127, November 2018, Pages 974-988
Journal: Renewable Energy - Volume 127, November 2018, Pages 974-988
نویسندگان
Benjamin Pillot, Sandro de Siqueira, João Batista Dias,