کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
6765809 | 512443 | 2016 | 9 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Quantifying sources of uncertainty in reanalysis derived wind speed
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
منابع کمی تعیین کننده عدم اطمینان در سرعت نسبی باد در تحقیق مجدد
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موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی های تجدید پذیر، توسعه پایدار و محیط زیست
چکیده انگلیسی
Reanalysis data are attractive for wind-power studies because they can offer wind speed data for large areas and long time periods and in locations where historical data are not available. However, reanalysis-predicted wind speeds can have significant uncertainties and biases relative to measured wind speeds. In this work we develop a model of the bias and uncertainty of CFS reanalysis wind speed than can be used to correct the data and identify sources of error. We find the CFS reanalysis data underestimate wind speeds at high elevations, at high measurement heights, and in unstable atmospheric conditions. For example, at a site with an elevation of 500Â m and hub height of 80Â m, a CFS reanalysis wind speed of 8Â m/s is 0.2Â m/s higher to 1.3Â m/s lower than the measured wind speed. We also find a seasonal bias that correlates with surface roughness length used by the reanalysis model during the spring season. The corrections we propose reduce the average bias of reanalysis wind speed extrapolated to hub height to nearly zero, an improvement of 0.3-0.9Â m/s. These corrections also reduce the RMS error by 0.1-0.4Â m/s, a small improvement compared to the uncorrected RMS errors of 1.5-2.4Â m/s.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Renewable Energy - Volume 94, August 2016, Pages 157-165
Journal: Renewable Energy - Volume 94, August 2016, Pages 157-165
نویسندگان
Stephen Rose, Jay Apt,