کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
6767894 512463 2015 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Spatial-temporal forecasting of solar radiation
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
پیش بینی محدوده زمانی از تابش خورشید
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی انرژی های تجدید پذیر، توسعه پایدار و محیط زیست
چکیده انگلیسی
We apply the CARDS solar forecasting tool, developed at the University of South Australia, to forecasting of solar radiation series at three sites in Guadeloupe in the Caribbean. After performing the model estimates at each individual site, forecast errors were tested for cross correlation. It was found that on an hourly time scale, there was small but significant correlation between sites, and this was taken into account in refining the forecast. Cross correlation was found to be insignificant at the ten minute time scale so this effect was not included in the forecasting. Also, the final error series in each case was tested for an ARCH effect, finding that to construct prediction intervals for the forecast a conditional heteroscedastic model had to be constructed for the variance. Note that cross correlation between sites has to be included for this procedure as well as in the forecasting of the radiation.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Renewable Energy - Volume 75, March 2015, Pages 607-616
نویسندگان
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