Projection of U.S. forest sector carbon sequestration under U.S. and global timber market and wood energy consumption scenarios, 2010–2060

This study provides a modeling framework to examine change over time in U.S. forest sector carbon inventory (in U.S. timberland tree biomass and harvested wood products) for alternative projections of U.S. and global timber markets, including wood energy consumption, based on established IPCC/RPA scenarios. Results indicated that the U.S. forest sector's projected capacities for carbon sequestration could be notably altered by use of forest resources for energy. A scenario with large expansion in U.S. wood energy consumption (16-fold increase by 2060) coupled with high global growth in gross domestic product would convert U.S. timberlands to a substantial carbon emission source by 2050, as timber growing stock inventories would be depleted because of increased biomass energy production. In contrast, the same high growth in the economy coupled with much smaller expansion of U.S. wood biomass energy consumption (less than two-fold increase by 2060) would result in a projected increase in average annual additions to U.S. forest sector carbon by up to four-fold by 2060. Results also indicated that higher cumulative carbon emissions from increased use of wood for energy could be partially offset—over time—by increased forest plantations and more intensive forest management that could be stimulated by the increased use of wood for energy. The modeling framework will enable future use of the USFPM/GFPM market modeling system to evaluate the impacts of forest carbon offset policies on forest carbon and forest products markets, by allowing carbon offset payments to compete in the model with forest products or wood energy for the control and use of available timber resources.

► We projected U.S. forest sector carbon trends under four alternative scenarios.
► Scenarios varied in U.S. and global timber markets and wood-energy consumption.
► The U.S. forest sector's carbon trends depend on use of wood for energy.
► With high wood energy use U.S. forest could be a carbon emission source by 2050.
► Increased wood energy emissions could be largely offset by increased forest growth.