Development of a probabilistic tool using Monte Carlo simulation and smart meters measurements for the long term analysis of low voltage distribution grids with photovoltaic generation

In this paper, given its simplicity of implementation, a pseudo-chronological Monte Carlo simulation is used and the statistical behaviour of prosumers (consumers with PV units) is directly based on smart meters measurements. Thanks to this tool, and using collected measurements from smart meters that are expected to be massively deployed in the future, it will be possible for the DSO to directly assess voltage profiles at all the nodes of the LV grid. Moreover, in the context of alleviating the impact of photovoltaic generation on the recorded voltage profiles, smart meters data will also be used in order to not only quantify the influence of reactive power flows on the collected results but also to estimate the auto-consumption potential over some critical nodes of the grid.