GIS based simulation of the biodiesel penetration in European Union markets: The case of Greece

This work deals with the investigation of the spatiotemporal distribution of the biodiesel producing local industrial units in Greece. For this purpose, a Geographical Information System (GIS) based application was used to interpret the spatiotemporal changes of the biodiesel production units. The number of these units increased from one being established in 2005 to 20 in 2013. Nineteen of them were established in Eastern Greece and only one in the western part. An S-shape equation was adapted to forecast the future biodiesel production. The 'capacity' curve levels off at 950 dam3 y−1 while 'distributed' biodiesel levels off at 140 dam3 y−1. The biodiesel 'real production' is expected to become 120 dam3 y−1. Finally, the externalities, the driving forces and the barriers that influence the penetration of biodiesel in the local market were investigated as well. It was found that, local biodiesel production decreases proportionately to the decreasing of the diesel consumption, keeping the biodiesel:diesel mixing ratio constant. It seems that, the Greek biodiesel market can be used as an example of the European Union (EU) market which also follows an S-shape curve.