Techno-economic study of the impact of blackouts on the viability of connecting an off-grid PV-diesel hybrid system in Tanzania to the national power grid

National electrification plans for many countries with a low level of electrification promote the implementation of centralized and decentralized electrification in parallel. This paper explores different ways of utilizing an established off-grid PV-diesel hybrid system when the national grid becomes available. This is a rather unique starting point within the otherwise well-explored area of rural electrification. With particular focus on the impact of blackouts in the national grid, we evaluate the economic viability of some alternatives: to continue to use the off-grid micro-grid, to connect the existing micro-grid with or without battery backup to the national grid, or to use the national grid only. Our simulation results in HOMER demonstrate that with a grid without blackouts, there are few benefits to maintain the existing system. Low grid-connection fees, low tariffs and low revenues from selling excess electricity to the grid contribute to this result despite the fact that the system does not carry any investment costs. With a grid with blackouts, it is beneficial to maintain the system. The extent of blackouts and the load on the system determine which system configuration is most feasible. The results make clear the importance of taking blackouts in the national grid into consideration when possible system configurations are being evaluated. This is rarely quantified in studies comparing different electrification alternatives, but deserves more attention.