کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
7195135 1468194 2018 30 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Degradation modeling and RUL prediction using Wiener process subject to multiple change points and unit heterogeneity
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی مهندسی مکانیک
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Degradation modeling and RUL prediction using Wiener process subject to multiple change points and unit heterogeneity
چکیده انگلیسی
Degradation modeling is critical for health condition monitoring and remaining useful life prediction (RUL). The prognostic accuracy highly depends on the capability of modeling the evolution of degradation signals. In many practical applications, however, the degradation signals show multiple phases, where the conventional degradation models are often inadequate. To better characterize the degradation signals of multiple-phase characteristics, we propose a multiple change-point Wiener process as a degradation model. To take into account the between-unit heterogeneity, a fully Bayesian approach is developed where all model parameters are assumed random. At the offline stage, an empirical two-stage process is proposed for model estimation, and a cross-validation approach is adopted for model selection. At the online stage, an exact recursive model updating algorithm is developed for online individual model estimation, and an effective Monte Carlo simulation approach is proposed for RUL prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through thorough simulation studies and real case study.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Reliability Engineering & System Safety - Volume 176, August 2018, Pages 113-124
نویسندگان
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