کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
7195176 1468195 2018 11 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Efficient evaluation of structural reliability under imperfect knowledge about probability distributions
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
ارزیابی کارایی قابلیت اطمینان در مورد دانش ناقص در مورد توزیع احتمالی
کلمات کلیدی
قابلیت اطمینان ساختاری عدم قطعیت پارامتر، احتمال شکست احتمالی، شاخص قابلیت اطمینان شرطی، روش برآورد نقطه،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی مهندسی مکانیک
چکیده انگلیسی
We investigate the evaluation of structural reliability under imperfect knowledge about the probability distributions of random variables, with emphasis on the uncertainties of the distribution parameters. When these uncertainties are considered, the failure probability becomes a random variable that is referred to as the conditional failure probability. For the sake of transparency in communicating risk, it is necessary to determine not only the mean but also the quantile of the conditional failure probability. A novel method is proposed for estimating the quantile of the conditional failure probability by using the probability distribution of the corresponding conditional reliability index, in which a point-estimate method based on bivariate dimension-reduction integration is first suggested to compute the first three moments (i.e., mean, standard deviation and skewness) of the conditional reliability index. The probability distribution of the conditional reliability index is then approximated by a three-parameter square normal distribution. Numerical studies show that the computational efficiency of the proposed method was well above that of Monte Carlo simulations without loss of accuracy, and also show that neglecting parameter uncertainties will lead to the structural reliability being overestimated. The developed methodology provides a complete picture of structural reliability evaluation under imperfect knowledge about probability distributions.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Reliability Engineering & System Safety - Volume 175, July 2018, Pages 160-170
نویسندگان
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