A delay time model with imperfect and failure-inducing inspections

This paper presents an inspection-based maintenance optimisation model where the inspections are imperfect and potentially failure-inducing. The model is based on the basic delay-time model in which a system has three states: perfectly functioning, defective and failed. The system is deteriorating through these states and to reveal defective systems, inspections are performed periodically using a procedure by which the system fails with a fixed state-dependent probability; otherwise, an inspection identifies a functioning system as defective (false positive) with a fixed probability and a defective system as functioning (false negative) with a fixed probability. The system is correctively replaced upon failure or preventively replaced either at the N'th inspection time or when an inspection reveals the system as defective, whichever occurs first. Replacement durations are assumed to be negligible and costs are associated with inspections, replacements and failures. The problem is to determine the optimal inspection interval T and preventive age replacement limit N that jointly minimise the long run expected cost per unit of time. The system may also be thought of as a passive two-state system subject to random demands; the three states of the model are then functioning, undetected failed and detected failed; and to ensure the renewal property of replacement cycles the demand process generating the 'delay time' is then restricted to the Poisson process. The inspiration for the presented model has been passive safety critical valves as used in (offshore) oil and gas production and transportation systems. In light of this the passive system interpretation is highlighted, as well as the possibility that inspection-induced failures are associated with accidents. Two numerical examples are included, and some potential extensions of the model are indicated.