کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
7350244 1476689 2018 55 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Econometric modeling of regional electricity spot prices in the Australian market
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدلسازی اقتصادسنجی قیمتهای برق منطقه ای در بازار استرالیا
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی انرژی (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی
Wholesale electricity markets are increasingly integrated via high voltage interconnectors, and inter-regional trade in electricity is growing. To model this, we consider a spatial equilibrium model of price formation, where constraints on inter-regional flows result in three distinct equilibria in prices. We use this to motivate an econometric model for the distribution of observed electricity spot prices that captures many of their unique empirical characteristics. The econometric model features supply and inter-regional trade cost functions, which are estimated using Bayesian monotonic regression smoothing methodology. A copula multivariate time series model is employed to capture additional dependence - both cross-sectional and serial - in regional prices. The marginal distributions are nonparametric, with means given by the regression means. The model has the advantage of preserving the heavy right-hand tail in the predictive densities of price. We fit the model to half-hourly spot price data in the five interconnected regions of the Australian national electricity market. The fitted model is then used to measure how both supply and price shocks in one region are transmitted to the distribution of prices in all regions in subsequent periods. Finally, to validate our econometric model, we show that prices forecast using the proposed model compares favorably with those from some benchmark alternatives.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Economics - Volume 74, August 2018, Pages 886-903
نویسندگان
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