The economics of the transition to fuel cell vehicles with natural gas, hybrid-electric vehicles as the bridge

Detailed comparisons are made between various types of light-duty vehicles fueled with natural gas and hydrogen. Natural gas vehicles are designed as charge sustaining hybrid vehicles (HEV) and hydrogen fueled vehicles (FCV) are powered by a fuel cell. All the vehicles have a range of 400 miles between refueling stops. This paper is concerned primarily with the near-term time period in which the fuel cell technology is maturing and the hydrogen infrastructure is being constructed both with respect to refueling stations and the source of the hydrogen being distributed. Detailed computer simulations are presented for vehicle classes from compact cars to mid-size SUVs. Energy (MJ) and volume (L) of fuel storage required to meet the 400 mile range target for each vehicle using natural gas and hydrogen are compared. Costs of the vehicles simulated are projected for 2015-2030. Cost results indicate that the costs of ownership of the natural gas HEVs and the hydrogen fuel cell vehicles become close in the 2025-2030 time period. CO2 emissions from natural gas fueled hybrid and fuel cell vehicles are calculated and compared for hydrogen and electricity from natural gas. Ways in which the introduction of the natural gas fueled vehicles could be a bridge to the mass marketing of fuel cell vehicles are discussed.