کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
7386377 | 1480628 | 2013 | 7 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Evaluating the long term impacts of transport policy: An initial assessment of bus deregulation
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
ارزیابی اثرات درازمدت سیاست حمل و نقل: ارزیابی اولیه از تنظیم مجدد اتوبوس
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کلمات کلیدی
اتوبوس محلی مقرراتزدایی، تجزیه و تحلیل رفاه،
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
چکیده انگلیسی
Local buses in Britain, outside London, were 'deregulated' as a result of the 1985 Transport Act, with most of the organisational changes implemented in 1986 but many of the ownership changes occurring over a longer period. By contrast, in London, the 1984 London Regional Transport Act introduced a system of comprehensive tendering - but it took 10 years for the organisational and ownership changes to be fully implemented. This paper examines the long term impacts of these changes. A key issue when examining long term changes is that of the counterfactual - what would have happened if the changes had not occurred? An econometric model of the demand for local bus services in Britain is outlined and used in conjunction with extrapolative methods for key variables such as fares and bus kms to determine demand-side counterfactuals. Some analyses of subsidy and of costs will also be outlined. This will then permit the examination of welfare change by estimating changes in consumer and producer surpluses, updating earlier studies. It is found that outside London, bus demand declined strongly, at least up to the year 2000 and some of this reduction can be ascribed to deregulation. By contrast in London, demand has generally been increasing. However, in both areas operating costs also declined strongly, again up to 2000, but since then there have been strong increases in costs and subsidy. Our initial finding is that there are net welfare increases both outside and inside London, but with welfare increases per capita being five times greater in London than elsewhere. However, sensitivity analysis shows that our results are sensitive to the specification of the modelling system and assumptions made concerning the counterfactual, particularly for the results for London.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Research in Transportation Economics - Volume 39, Issue 1, March 2013, Pages 208-214
Journal: Research in Transportation Economics - Volume 39, Issue 1, March 2013, Pages 208-214
نویسندگان
John Preston, Talal Almutairi,