Part 1. National road safety performance: Data, the emergence of two single-outcome modeling streams and public health

These seminal single-outcome models gave rise to two streams of explanations, distinct to this day, that share a “public health” epidemiological emphasis on the establishment of multiple correlations which give rise to testable corrective policy interventions. These are still of limited value in the explanation of the simultaneous peaking of fatalities in many OECD countries in 1972-1973 (called “the Mystery of 1972-1973”, hypothesized here to be occasioned by the passing of the demographic baby boom wave) and as guidance in the design of policies for the containment of road risk arising from the intrinsic dangerousness of individuals.