Implications of delaying transport decarbonisation in the EU: A systems analysis using the PRIMES model

This paper presents a systems analysis that aims to assess what would happen if the decarbonisation strategy fails to develop, as anticipated during the decade 2020-2030. We refer to this timeframe as the “Lost Decade”. To answer this question, our analysis is based on counterfactual scenarios quantified using the PRIMES energy systems model. The analysis concludes that the decade 2020-2030 is a critical point in this transformation. Limited progress in the coming decade would require the adoption of stringent policy measures beyond 2030 which, along with the pressure to reduce emissions in a short period are found to increase substantially the total costs of the system.