کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
7396836 | 1481239 | 2018 | 14 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A probabilistic total cost of ownership model to evaluate the current and future prospects of electric cars uptake in Italy
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مجموع هزینه احتمالی مدل مالکیت برای ارزیابی چشم انداز کنونی و آینده مصرف برق الکتریکی در ایتالیا
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کلمات کلیدی
مجموع هزینهی مالکیت، اتومبیل های مسافری، اتومبیل های الکتریکی، خودروهای متعارف،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
مهندسی انرژی و فناوری های برق
چکیده انگلیسی
In order to evaluate the current and future prospects of electric cars' in Italy, we develop a probabilistic total cost of ownership (TCO) model, which includes stochastic and non-stochastic variables, vehicle usage and contextual assumptions. We find that electric cars are currently not cost-competitive in Italy with the conventional petrol or diesel cars. However, they are cost-competitive with the hybrid electric cars when more than 10,000â¯km are annually traveled. With incentivizing policies (a â¬5,000 subsidy and a â¬400 parking and access fee annual savings), currently in place in a limited number of Italian Regions and cities, electric cars perform in monetary terms better than hybrid electric cars and some diesel cars, especially if they are charged at home. However, electric cars are expected to gain market share in the year 2025 if fuel prices follow past trends, even without subsidies. The driving force could be a drop in their retail price, thanks to declining battery pack costs, and a possible revision of the taxes on diesel.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Policy - Volume 119, August 2018, Pages 268-281
Journal: Energy Policy - Volume 119, August 2018, Pages 268-281
نویسندگان
Romeo Danielis, Marco Giansoldati, Lucia Rotaris,