کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
7398716 1481262 2016 12 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The impact of the North American shale gas revolution on regional natural gas markets: Evidence from the regime-switching model
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تاثیر انقلاب گاز شیل کانادا در بازارهای منطقه ای گاز طبیعی: شواهد از مدل سوئیچ رژیم
کلمات کلیدی
انقلاب گاز شیل، بازار گاز طبیعی، مدل سوئیچینگ رژیم، قیمت گسترش می یابد،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی مهندسی انرژی و فناوری های برق
چکیده انگلیسی
This paper investigates the impact of the North American shale gas revolution on price movement regimes in the North American and European gas markets, using the Markov regime-switching model. It then measures price spreads between oil and gas from 1998 to 2015 to identify the impact of the revolution on the relationship between oil and regional gas prices. The results show that the typical movement regime of Henry Hub prices changes from 'slightly upward' to 'sharply downward'. In addition, the clear seasonal effect of Henry Hub prices has disappeared after the shale gas revolution. The typical movement of national balancing point (NBP) prices has changed gradually from a 'sharply upward' regime to the alternative regimes between 'sharply downward' and 'slightly upward', tending to follow oil prices. This indicates that the shale gas revolution has had little impact on NBP price movement. Meanwhile, Henry Hub prices have decoupled from WTI prices, while NBP and Brent prices have continued to exhibit a long-term equilibrium level around which they have swung in the short time-frame since the shale gas revolution. Pertinent energy policy makers and energy market participants should pay attention to these changes and adjust their trade, production and investment strategies accordingly.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Policy - Volume 96, September 2016, Pages 167-178
نویسندگان
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