کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
7399800 1481268 2016 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Forecasting electricity consumption in Pakistan: the way forward
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
پیش بینی مصرف برق در پاکستان: راه پیش رو
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی مهندسی انرژی و فناوری های برق
چکیده انگلیسی
Growing shortfall of electricity in Pakistan affects almost all sectors of its economy. For proper policy formulation, it is imperative to have reliable forecasts of electricity consumption. This paper applies Holt-Winter and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models on time series secondary data from 1980 to 2011 to forecast total and component wise electricity consumption in Pakistan. Results reveal that Holt-Winter is the appropriate model for forecasting electricity consumption in Pakistan. It also suggests that electricity consumption would continue to increase throughout the projected period and widen the consumption-production gap in case of failure to respond the issue appropriately. It further reveals that demand would be highest in the household sector as compared to all other sectors and the increase in the energy generation would be less than the increase in total electricity consumption throughout the projected period. The study discuss various options to reduce the demand-supply gap and provide reliable electricity to different sectors of the economy.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Policy - Volume 90, March 2016, Pages 73-80
نویسندگان
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