Distributional effects of a carbon tax on Chinese households: A case of Shanghai

As an effective policy instrument to reduce CO2 emissions, the effects of a carbon tax on distribution have been the critical factor in determining whether a carbon tax will be acceptable in China. Taking Shanghai as an example, which is the economic center and front-runner of China, this paper estimates the distributional effect of a carbon tax on households in various income groups by using the input-output model and the Suits index. The results indicate that the comprehensive distributional effect of the carbon tax is regressive. The expenditure of the low-income group caused by the carbon tax accounts for 0.853% of the total expenditure, while that of the high-income group 0.712%. The direct distributional effect presents a weak progressivity, while the indirect one is significantly regressive, and the latter is much larger than the former. Moreover, the Suits index of the carbon tax is −0.078, implying that the carbon tax burden on the low-income group is the highest and thus that a carbon tax can intensify income inequality. Therefore, when introducing a carbon tax, some rational associated redistribution or compensation measures, such as purposive transfer payments, should be implemented to restrict or even eliminate the regressivity of the carbon tax.