کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
7402588 | 1481290 | 2014 | 9 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Testing the rationality of DOE's energy price forecasts under asymmetric loss preferences
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
مهندسی انرژی و فناوری های برق
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
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چکیده انگلیسی
This paper examines the rationality of the price forecasts for energy commodities of the United States Department of Energy's (DOE), departing from the common assumption in the literature that DOE's forecasts are based on a symmetric underlying loss function with respect to positive vs. negative forecast errors. Instead, we opt for the methodology of Elliott et al. (2005) that allows testing the joint hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function and rationality and reveals the underlying preferences of the forecaster. Results indicate the existence of asymmetries in the shape of the loss function for most energy categories with preferences leaning towards optimism. Moreover, we also examine whether there is a structural break in those preferences over the examined period, 1997-2012.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Policy - Volume 68, May 2014, Pages 567-575
Journal: Energy Policy - Volume 68, May 2014, Pages 567-575
نویسندگان
E. Mamatzakis, A. Koutsomanoli-Filippaki,