The European Union Emission Trading System and technological change: The case of the Italian pulp and paper industry

We evaluate the contribution of technological change in reducing CO2 emissions in the Italian pulp and paper industry during the first and second phases of application of the European Union Emission Trading System (EU-ETS). We decompose the variation in emission and emission intensity into three different types of effects: a composition effect, a technique effect and a scale effect. The composition effect measures the change in emissions and emissions intensity due to a shift in production towards products that cause less emissions. The technique effect measures the change per each type of product, thereby accounting for technology improvements in the production of each type of good produced. The scale effect singles out the reduction in total emission due to an overall reduction in output. We show that the first phase of the application of EU-ETS has led to a reduction in both emissions and emission intensity due to the composition effect. The technological change has had a limited negative impact on emissions in the first phase, while in the second phase there has been limited technology improvement in the industry. However, the figures of the scale effect show that the larger reduction in emission is due to the overall decrease in output.