The feasibility and implications for conventional liquid fossil fuel of the Indonesian biofuel target in 2025

This paper identifies conventional liquid fossil fuels that can be replaced or blended with biofuel and quantifies the biofuels required to meet the Indonesian biofuel target of at least 5% of the total primary energy mix in 2025. The analysis was conducted using the Long range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system with an energy elasticity of 1 and maximum allowable biofuel blending ratios according to the current best practices. The results show that the target could be achieved with the maximum blending alternative based on constant energy demand growth of 6%. The target requires a total contribution from biofuel of about 8-27 GL in 2025 depending on blending ratios. In energy terms, these are equivalent to 232-782 PJ or about 40-135 million barrels crude oil, which constitute roughly around 3.3-11.0% of the estimated liquid fossil fuel oil annual consumption in that year. The results imply that it may have detrimental environmental impact, as it requires 5.2 million ha of palm oil and sugar cane plantations. On the positive side, achieving the target offers potential new employment opportunities of about 3.4 million jobs, particularly in the agricultural sector relevant to liquid biofuel production.