The Canadian oil sands industry under carbon constraints

► We investigate the impact of climate policies on Canada's oil sands industry. ► A computable general equilibrium model of the world economy is applied for the assessment. ► Without climate policy, Canadian bitumen production increases almost 4 fold from 2010 to 2050. ► With regional policy, bitumen output may drop by up to 68% and upgrading moves to no-policy countries. ► With global policy, bitumen production is significantly reduced since upgrading abroad is no longer viable.