A method for estimating security of electricity supply from intermittent sources: Scenarios for Germany until 20301

► We investigate future supply adequacy in the German electricity market. ► We develop a concept for statistically secured generation capacity from renewables. ► We empirically assess supply adequacy for Germany taking into account the nuclear phase-out. ► We find that supply adequacy is given in the medium term. ► In the longer term, the amount of flexible back-up capacity increases sharply.