The end of cheap oil: Bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves

► Remaining oil reserves and average costs are of limited use in forecasting. ► We present a bottom-up approach to the modeling of regional oil production. ► Producers maximize net present value under technological and physical constraints. ► Exploration is modeled as random sampling from a lognormal field size distribution. ► Regional production starts declining before half of the recoverable oil is produced.