Entre ciencia y ficción: notas sobre la demografía de la Shoá1

Although the quantitative effects of the Shoa (a term usually translated as Holocaust), have been abundantly addressed and speculated over, few studies have been based on rigorous demographic methods to explore them. The first part of this article evaluates the main factors that should be thoroughly examined to establish the short and long term impact on the Jewish population. The second section presents demographic global projections of what the Jewish population would be nowadays if the Holocaust had not occurred. The obviously speculative analysis is based on numerous assumptions, beyond those suggested by the author. The findings of these hypothetical projections reveal that, due to the number of unborn generations, a high rate of infant mortality during the war, and the current aging of the Jewish population, the demographic losses extend way beyond the officially acknowledged six million direct victims of the war.