Scenario-based planning for tourism development using system dynamic modelling: A case study of Cat Ba Island, Vietnam

Our results indicate that the current trajectory of tourism development on Cat Ba Island is not sustainable and limits to growth may be reached as early as 2022 due to water shortages, pollution and overcrowding. Beyond this time the destination risks breaching its limits to growth, which creates a further risk, that of eroding carrying capacity through resource depletion and environmental degradation.